The real cost of going solar in 2026 (NEM 3.0 update)
Cash, loan, and PPA side-by-side. What it actually costs in 2026, what the federal ITC covers, and what NEM 3.0 changed.
Cash, loan, and PPA side-by-side. What it actually costs in 2026, what the federal ITC covers, and what NEM 3.0 changed.
The headline numbers
Average residential solar install in NorCal in 2026: $3.20 – $4.00/watt before ITC, $2.25 – $2.80/watt after the 30% federal ITC. A 9 kW system: $28,800 – $36,000 before ITC, $20,200 – $25,200 after.
Cash vs loan vs PPA
Cash: highest lifetime ROI (8-12% project finance). Loan: 4.99% APR, 25-yr term, no money down, lower lifetime ROI but no upfront capital. PPA: 7-9¢/kWh locked rate, zero ownership, lowest ROI but zero risk.
What NEM 3.0 changed
Exports pay 5–8¢/kWh instead of 30–50¢/kWh. The math shifted from "oversize for export" to "right-size for self-consumption + add battery." A 2× Powerwall is now standard on residential installs.
What the federal ITC covers
Solar panels, inverters, racking, balance-of-system, labor, permits, and sales tax. Battery storage is also covered if charged ≥75% from solar. There is no income limit.